Hamas influence looms over Gaza elections as experts warn vote could backfire

On Saturday, Gazans in Deir al-Balah will go to the polls to elect new local leaders for the first time in 2o years, a move experts warn could allow Hamas room to maintain influence as it refuses to comply with ceasefire disarmament terms.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies Executive Director Jonathan Schanzer told Fox News Digital that "when you hold elections in the Palestinian Authority and the timing's not right and the circumstances are still dicey, you get Hamas victories."

Schanzer said the Bush administration's 2006 decision to advocate for elections "led to Hamas winning, and it led to a standoff which led to a civil war." 

"You've got to be really careful when it comes to holding elections with a territory like Gaza in particular, where Hamas has so much control, and where terrorist organizations are still considered to be legitimate players," Schanzer added. 

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Gazan journalists and media personnel continue to be posthumously identified as members of terrorist groups, highlighting the difficulty of distinguishing terror affiliates from civilians.

Four parties are contesting the election in Deir al-Balah. To be eligible, candidates were asked to accept the Palestine Liberation Organization and the terms of agreements it has previously made, including recognition of the State of Israel and endorsement of a two-state solution, according to reporting by the Center for Peace Communications.

However, many are concerned that one party, Deir al-Balah Unites Us, is affiliated with Hamas. Two of its candidates have been pictured with Hamas officials or police officers.

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, posted on X that "holding elections in Gaza at this time is extremely reckless and irresponsible," noting that "Gazans are being arrested, jailed, tortured, shot, and killed daily for social media posts and anything they say that's perceived as being critical of Hamas. 

"These elections should be halted and prevented from proceeding, for they are meddling with the transition process that the Board of Peace, [National Council for the Administration of Gaza], and the international community have planned for Gaza, with Hamas's disarmament and relinquishment of power being the first necessary step."

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Disarmament of Hamas, a key demand within the second phase of President Donald Trump's ceasefire agreement, has yet to be completed. Reports indicate that Hamas has increased its hold in Gaza as of March, continuing to tax locals, building education system and placing police throughout the territory it holds.

Schanzer said Hamas is unlikely to hand over its arms. If it were to do so, he said that they "will try to make distinctions between weapons," possibly offering to give up heavy weapons like RPGs while maintaining a large arsenal of automatic weapons.

Hamas appears to have made a partial disarmament offer. The New York Times reported April 19 that two Hamas officials said they would hand over thousands of weapons from their police force and other security institutions. The officials "did not provide a clear answer" when asked if weapons from Hamas' so-called military wing would be included.

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Schanzer pushed back on claims that Hamas' political and military wings operate separately. 

"That is a fiction. The idea that they are separate in any way or that there is a firewall between them is asinine." He said that this is "a distinction that has been made up by the West in order to be able to have political relations with Hamas, or to justify elections. It's a mistake to buy into that fiction."

Schanzer said weakening Iran could be key to minimizing Hamas' influence. 

"The psychological impact of their top patron being defeated on the battlefield, I can't overstate how important that event could be," he said. "It would be a gut punch to Hamas."

With Israel controlling about 53% of the Gaza Strip and Hamas the remaining 47%, Schanzer said, "We could continue to see the erosion of Hamas control" amid the "slow and steady process of Israel winning on the ground." 

He said patience, though, is necessary, adding that "the enemies of the United States and Israel and the West have a very different timeline. They want to wait out everybody because they know that we'd like to move on."

The Trump administration did not respond to Fox News Digital's questions about whether a partial disarmament would satisfy its ceasefire terms or if it would take action to stall elections until there's more stability in Gaza